Obama Administration Must Balance Egypt's Repressive Government and Push for Democracy
LYLE J. RAPACKI, Ph.D.
January the 29th, 2011
0845Hrs; m.s.t. (Arizona) Lyle@SentinelIntelligenceServices.com
Email Briefing Bulletin: FLASH TRAFFIC - - FLASH TRAFFIC
The information contained in this briefing is for your consideration insofar as how we in America may be affected by the growing crisis
1. The riots in Egypt have continued the past 4-days, and are growing in both intensity and in numbers of outbreaks and participants. As of this date/time, 74-killed and two thousand injured. Also 3-police officers have been killed. The police in Cairo have been recalled completely with the Egyptian military now the lead
force attempting to bring order. The curfew has been completely ignored, with the numbers of rioters growing by the hour. Over 18-million people live in Cairo, Egypt.
2. The rioters are "everyday" Egyptians; including Moms, Grandmothers, and those who would never have thought about acts of civil disobedience. Egyptians are well-educated but literally hungry. For 30-years, the Egyptian government has stolen from the people, and while the Egyptian government became wealthy and accustomed to a very nice life-style, the people of Egypt, for the most part, have not been as fortunate. Another example of the disparity between the Elites and everyone else. The emotional drama is still building. Crowds take on their own personality, and what is taking place in Cairo, Egypt is beginning to spread to outlining areas of the country, and is also intensifying. The people are beginning to speak in one voice "Not until
Mubarak is removed!" Shuffling the Egyptian cabinet may prove to be nothing more than political window dressing, and the people will not go along with this type of sham
3. Lt. Gen Omar Suleiman, Director of Egypt's Intelligence System, EGID, similar to America's CIA, has been appointed Vice President of Egypt. This may prove to be the first step in President Mubarak stepping down as President. General Suleiman can be viewed as Gerald Ford was during the Nixon transition closing down Watergate; a calming and transitional President. Mubarak is still holding on, but his wife and son already have left the country landing in London, England.
Barrel to $90-barrel which means gas in America will go to $4-gal by next week. Yesterday, Friday, oil jumped 4.3% the largest one-day jump since 9/09. There is speculation a price jump could be as high as $10-a barrel. This rise would have very serious implications for Americans and our economy. Over 2-million barrels of oil go to Europe daily through the Suez Canal. Any disruption could have a severe immediate effect on Europe and its' continuing decaying economy.
5. Signs of a slow and steady villanization of America is underway. The United States is seen by a growing number of Egyptians as being the main support to Mubarak, helping him to remain in a dictatorial position the past 30-years. Mubarak will not listen to the present administration in America. He is most close to the
Clintons, but does not respect at all Obama. So, our influence will be limited.
6. The Muslim Brotherhood is increasing its presence and influence during this. This will have a very negative result for America.
LYLE J. RAPACKI, Ph.D.
Protective Intelligence and Assessment Specialist
Consultant at Behavioral Analysis and Threat Assessment
Private-Sector Intelligence Analyst